📈 Lost in inflation
Plus: Will Canada run on Dunkin?
May 15, 2026
📩 THE OPENING POSITION
Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our newsletter! I’m Tyler, and I lead financial education at The Margin. My dream is to get you and everyone else to stop putting all of their money in a bank account. Please, I’m begging you!
I get it – you want to keep at least enough in there to make your rent or mortgage payment, as well as any insurance or regular payments you make. But beyond that? Bad idea.
Don’t just let your money sit idle in a regular chequing or savings account when you could invest it and have your money make money. Even if you’re an extremely risk-averse individual, you can at least put your savings in a high-interest savings account. If you don’t need that money for a few years, though, consider investing it, because the longer your money sits in a simple (chequing) account, the less valuable it gets.
Whoops, I just remembered it’s pay day – time to make another transfer...
– Tyler Haw, Audience Growth and Education
🔔 BEFORE THE BELL
The takeaway: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit all-time highs this week, while the TSX managed to eke out a 0.53% gain. American investors are unsurprisingly big on high-growth tech, while Canadian investors are stuck watching the fluctuating gold and oil prices. “Slow and steady wins the race” may be a popular adage, but for now, investors are betting on growth over stability.
🔎 THE CONTEXT
American inflation is a Canadian problem

Photo credit: Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images/The Margin Staff
Just like an obsessed ex, US inflation came back with a vengeance this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% YoY - that's up from 3.3% in March and represents its highest mark since May 2023. Then Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.4% from last month (expectations were 0.4% – yikes). And Core PPI, which strips out volatile sectors like food and energy, spiked 1.0% instead of the 0.3% analysts predicted. We haven't seen that fast an increase since 2022.
US markets reacted quickly. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.48% (the highest of the year so far), and 30-year bond yields hit 5% for the first time since 2007. Essentially, RIP to any potential Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2026.
Unfortunately for Canada, bond yields don't care about country borders, so even though the Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25% two weeks ago, rising US yields pull Canadian rates higher. That means higher borrowing costs across the board, no matter what Tiff Macklem says, does, or dances to.
What this means…
- For fixed-rate mortgage shoppers: Fixed mortgage rates don't follow the Bank of Canada's policy rate; they follow bond markets. And Canadian bond markets move with US bond markets, so even though the BoC held steady a couple of weeks ago, the US inflation jump means bond yields are climbing on both sides of the border. Translation: fixed mortgage rates are going up. If you're shopping for a fixed-rate mortgage or renewing soon, that's worth factoring in now rather than waiting for the next BoC decision.
- For retirees and income investors: US 30-year bonds are now paying 5% - that's competitive with many Canadian dividend stocks, but without the downside of stock market volatility. When that happens, investors move their money south to take advantage of those returns. More demand for US assets means more demand for US dollars, which weakens the loonie, and a weaker Canadian dollar means more expensive imports, from groceries to gas to your winter vacation. That's not a great combination if your income is fixed in CAD.
Also:
- US President Donald Trump was in China this week to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and dish all about the Iran conflict, trade imbalances, Taiwan, and which boys they think are cute (we might be speculating on that last one). The two also agreed the Strait of Hormuz should remain a free and open waterway, which it already was before the war started, but Xi was diplomatic enough not to mention that part.
- AI chipmaker Cerebras raised an eye-watering $5.55 billion in its IPO on Wednesday. Demand was so strong that the company raised its expected price twice in nine days (first from $115-125 per share to $150-160, then ultimately up to $185), and shares jumped up 68% on their first day of trading Thursday. It's the biggest tech IPO since Uber in 2019 – though Cerebras may not hold that title for long, given that OpenAI and SpaceX listings are expected to go public later this year.
- Jesta Group, a Montreal real estate firm, announced this week it's planning to buy $500 million worth of unsold Toronto condos over the next 12 months, with the plan to turn them into rentals for a few years, then sell them once the market recovers at some point in the future. The firm calls it “market stabilization,” though the CEO admitted “we’re not pretending to be the affordability saviour.” Points for honesty, we guess?
🤿 ROLLING IN THE DEEP

Photo credit: Pexels
The loyalty tax: How families drain their successful kids
by Louisa Eunice
This is an excerpt of an article originally run in full on The Margin. “Sarah Thompson” is a pseudonym; the subject requested anonymity to speak candidly about family financial dynamics.
Inside a No Frills on Lansdowne Avenue in Toronto, Sarah Thompson stood in the dairy aisle, staring at a carton of eggs. She had just sent $400 to her cousin for quote-unquote "car repairs" (one of multiple e-transfers she’d made to family members recently) and was now doing some familiar calculations in her head: would the money left over in her account be enough to cover both her own groceries and her rising condo fees?
The 34-year-old senior project manager earns a six-figure salary.
“I actually started to feel sick,” Sarah says. “I’m thinking, I make over a hundred thousand dollars a year. Why am I panicking over a dozen eggs?”
Sarah is paying the loyalty tax, the informal, compounding cost of being the most financially capable person in the family. In an economic climate where families are increasingly struggling and the household-debt-to-income ratio has climbed to more than 177%, the "stable child" often becomes the safety net – not by choice, but by proximity. What their family sees as mandatory or expected generosity from the stable child is, in reality, preventing that child from growing their own wealth or preparing for retirement.
The process was supposed to be straightforward: work hard, climb the ladder, and secure your future. But for a specific class of high-achievers, that came with extra fees they weren’t prepared for: "loans" to family that never got paid back, a parent's mortgage that somehow turned into a shared expense, and relatives who called to say “remember where you came from.” Most stable children don’t even register paying the loyalty tax as a choice.
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👀 UNSOLICITED OPINIONS

Photo credit: Michael Chilsholm/Getty Images
Let the Leafs cheat a little
Tyler Haw, Audience Growth and Education: Last week, the Toronto Maple Leafs hired John Chayka, former general manager of the Arizona Coyotes, as their new GM. Many think this was a terrible decision. One reporter decided to speak for this cohort by calling Chayka a con artist and a liar to his face.
The criticisms: He didn't offer a contract to Arizona's franchise player Shane Doan after a 20-year career. He conducted illegal pre-draft testing. He quit with three years left on his contract. And through it all, he never turned Arizona into a first-class hockey club.
But I think Toronto’s outrage is overblown. He didn't sign a 40-year-old player? Big deal; that's business. He tried to gain an edge with draft picks? Honestly, I want my GM doing whatever it takes to win. And yeah, he wasn't great in Arizona, but Arizona was so bad they had to play in a college arena for an entire year and then lost the team entirely to Utah. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he may do better with all the resources and money Toronto has to offer.
Some want their team to win with integrity. Me? It's been so long. Like, so long. Almost 60 years long. I just want to win. Toronto's already seen as the big bad cheating hockey club (even though our worst offence was summer practices), so we may as well flex that muscle a bit.
So far, Chayka's won the draft lottery and fired the head coach – I’d say he’s off to a good start. Toronto finished fifth-last this year, which means there’s a lot of room to go up.
🧾 INSIDER TRADING
From The Margin group chat:

If you liked this newsletter, hated this newsletter, or are totally indifferent to it, hit the reply button and tell us why! We’re so lonely.
This week’s contributors: Louisa Eunice (writer), Tyler Haw (audience engagement), Jenna Zaitchik (senior creative designer), Shazia Khan (social media strategy manager), Kat Angus (deputy editor), and Eric Wainwright (editor in chief).
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