⚽️ Our Cup runneth over
Plus: Oil is still expensive – again, some more
Jun 12, 2026
📩 THE OPENING POSITION
Vamos! FIFA World Cup officially kicks off on Canadian soil today, so by the time you read this, I will be hiding in a bunker as far as possible from whatever chaos is descending upon Toronto Stadium and the surrounding area. Say a prayer for the citizens of the Liberty Village neighbourhood, now fighting for survival against packs of coyotes AND soccer fans.
Footy aside, this has still been an unusually wild sports week. Both the NHL and NBA playoffs are currently a) happening, b) bananas, and c) historically expensive. NBA Finals seats at Madison Square Garden were apparently going for US$7,000+ at some point – even Knicks player Josh Hart was like, that ain’t right. If you were fretting about those World Cup ticket prices, some New Yorkers would very much like you to hold their beer. (At least we haven’t been priced out of witnessing Timothee Chalamet courtside drips. Now THOSE are priceless.)
– Shazia Khan, Social Media Strategy Manager
🔔 BEFORE THE BELL
Index | Week (June 4–8, 2026) |
TSX | ▲ +166.22 (+0.48%) |
S&P 500 | ▼ -48.72 (-0.65%) |
Nasdaq | ▼ -263.61 (-1.01%) |
Dow | ▼ -165.88 (-0.33%) |
The takeaway: It was a rough week for the markets, especially in the US. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all down at Thursday close after days of volatility – thank the Iran war for that. Thursday afternoon, Trump announced that he was cancelling planned evening strikes, which did move the needle, but not enough to fully recover. Comparatively, the TSX held up well, but that’s due to those pesky oil prices. Will next week be better? It depends on whether the ‘peace deal’ Trump mentioned yesterday actually comes through.
🔎 THE CONTEXT
Good news for Alberta, bad news for your gas tank

Photo credit: Lance McMillan/Getty Images
We’re into the fourth month of the Iran war, and you’ll surely be shocked that the ceasefire agreement from April has turned out to be more like ceasefire guidelines. After Iran downed an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz this week, the US launched multiple days of strikes in retaliation and peace talks stalled. Now Trump is threatening to take “total control” of Iran’s oil industry and saying that they’ll “pay the price” for holding up the talks. Brent crude spiked 1.8% on Wednesday, hitting US$91.10 a barrel, and Canadian gas prices have already gone up more than 25% since the war began.
For Canada’s energy sector, it’s an almost obscene time to be in the oil business. Gulf supply is still disrupted, so buyers are shopping around, and this week India's High Commissioner told the Global Energy Show in Calgary that India is considering Canadian oil – its newer refineries are built to handle heavy grades, and that’s exactly what Alberta produces. Canadian governments and the energy industry have spent years saying Canada needs customers beyond its neighbour to the south – someone finally made that wish on a monkey’s paw.
What this means…
For investors: Duh. Of course it’s looking good for y’all. If prices hold, Canadian oil producers could see gains of as much as C$90 billion. With a b. And analysts estimate that for every US$10 increase above the pre-war price of US$70 a barrel, Canadian oil could see an extra C$25–$30 billion in revenue. Enjoy diving into your swimming pool of money, à la Scrooge McDuck.
For consumers: The news is less good. Granted, the federal government suspended the excise tax on gas and diesel in April, which did cut prices by about 10 cents a litre, but that only goes until Labour Day. Higher energy costs will affect anything and everything that gets transported, manufactured, or heated, so prices at the pump and in the grocery store are likely to get worse before they get better.
For Alberta: Canadian energy companies came into 2026 expecting crude oil prices of around US$60 a barrel. Prices are now in the US$90-100 range, which should put a good dent in the province's projected C$9.4 billion deficit. The Alberta Federation of Labour has already called for a windfall profits tax to make sure some of that cash actually stays in the province.
Also:
SpaceX makes its Nasdaq debut this morning after setting the price at US$135 a share on Thursday under the ticker SPCX. It’s a US$75 billion raise at a US$1.77 trillion valuation, which you could just scrounge up from your couch cushions. Elon Musk will retain more than 82% voting control after the offering, but he’ll probably be super humble and chill about it.
For the fifth time in a row, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%, still stuck between Canada’s weak economy and the oil-driven inflation. Governor Tiff Macklem essentially said: a cut is possible, a hike is possible, anything is possible, just leave me alone to watch my stories.
The Carney government introduced a bill this week aimed at restricting social media for kids under 16. Culture Minister Marc Miller presented Bill C-34, the Safe Social Media Act, which would grant exemptions for social media that implements "adequate safeguards” that have yet to be determined. Realistically, the bill probably wouldn’t come into effect until later in 2027, so there’s still plenty of time to yell at your surly teen for spending too much time on their phone.
Dollarama (TSX:DOL) had an excellent Q1, reporting C$1.85 billion in sales – that’s a honkin’ 21% jump from 2025, with sales at existing stores up 5.6%, well above what analysts predicted. Is the store doing better, or are the rest of us doing worse? Don’t answer that.

Source: Statistics Canada
🤿 ROLLING IN THE DEEP

Photo credit: Getty Images
How much could Team Canada actually win at the World Cup?
by Ali Amad
This is an excerpt of an article originally run in full on The Margin.
When Team Canada takes the field for its opening World Cup game in Toronto on June 12, the stakes really will be higher than ever. The men's national squad will be chasing history on home soil while competing in a tournament featuring the largest prize pool in World Cup history.
FIFA will distribute a record US$655 million to the 48 countries competing at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a 50% increase over the US$440 million awarded at the 2022 tournament in Qatar. Teams eliminated in the group stage will each receive US$12 million (which includes the prize pool money and additional payments). Prize money increases with each round, culminating in US$33 million for the runner-up and US$50 million for the champion.
Under a collective bargaining agreement with Canada Soccer, the sport's national governing body, every player selected to Canada's 2026 World Cup roster will receive a base payment of CAD$25,000 per group-stage match in the first round. With three group-stage games, each roster player would earn at least CAD$75,000. Those financial rewards are a significantly bigger than Canada's first-ever World Cup appearance in 1986, when members of that squad reportedly received just $1,000 per game.
Canada Soccer and the players on both the men's and women's national teams also share a portion of World Cup prize money through a tiered formula tied to the men's 2026 World Cup and the women's 2027 World Cup. Canada Soccer retains the first US$12 million in combined group-stage prize money from both tournaments. Of the next US$2 million, 50% is allocated to player compensation pools. The share falls to 25% on the following US$1 million and 15% on any amount above US$15 million.
If Canada’s men’s team advances beyond the group stage this summer, the players stand to earn substantially more. Under the agreement, 50% of any additional FIFA prize money generated through advancement in the knockout rounds will be split evenly between the men's and women's team players, with the remaining 50% retained by Canada Soccer.
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👀 UNSOLICITED OPINIONS

Photo credit: Getty Images/The Margin Staff
I hope you like feminist rants, because that’s kind of my thing
Shazia Khan, Social Media Strategy Manager: Popheads, rejoice: Olivia Rodrigo’s third album, you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love, drops today. What SHOULD have simply been some light and drama-free music news has instead been mired in a weird online controversy about her outfits. A few loud corners of the internet accused her of "dressing like a baby," apparently without any knowledge of fashion history, or regular history, or, like, the basic concept of a reference.
Sure, we all love to play Fashion Cop occasionally (I personally logged a formal complaint about my boss’s short-sleeved dress shirt just this morning), but the “outrage” over Rodrigo’s style is just ignorant. This isn't mysterious: Rodrigo has long sung the praises of Courtney Love, Kathleen Hanna, and other ‘90s female-alt-rock heroes as her influences. Those gals famously pioneered the “kinderwhore” trend of babydoll dresses and Peter Pan collars with smeared lipstick and combat boots in order to subvert the male gaze, not invite it.
The babydoll is also just a brilliant socioeconomics lesson itself. It was invented in 1942 in response to World War II fabric rationing. It went mainstream in the late ‘60s as the counterculture, fuelled by a postwar economic boom, fought to reject conservative norms. And when those riot grrrl/grunge icons brought it back in the ‘90s, they did so by dumpster diving for cheap, vintage pieces amidst a recession, inflation, an oil shock, and a volatile job market. Which, hmm… sounds familiar? Maybe there’s a reason it’s making a comeback.
Maybe Rodrigo’s homage is a bit harder to clock without the tattoos, torn fishnets, and disheveled blonde hair that typically accessorized the babydoll way back when. But hey, fashion doesn’t just repeat; it evolves. Even then, all it takes is listening to literally one of her interviews (or maybe, y’know, her songs?) to get what she’s referencing. So, to anyone who forms strong opinions about women’s clothes without bothering to absorb the actual history behind them, well… you might be part of why we invent these looks in the first place.
For more information, consult your local library, or listen to this Spotify playlist I made in a fit of feminist rage the other night. I’ll get off my “old lady yells at the patriarchy” soapbox now.
🧾 INSIDER TRADING
From The Margin group chat:

If you liked this newsletter, hated this newsletter, or are totally indifferent to it, hit the reply button and tell us why! We’re so lonely.
This week’s contributors: Ali Amad (writer), Tyler Haw (audience engagement), Jenna Zaitchik (senior creative designer), Shazia Khan (social media strategy manager), Kat Angus (deputy editor), and Eric Wainwright (editor in chief).
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