The death of the cheap last-minute flight

Erin Davis
Mon, 13 Apr 2026 13:05:30 +0000
Standby-seats, Dynamic-pricing, Airline-pricing

The standby seat used to be a high-stakes game: show up at the airport with your suitcase, passport, and a little nerve, and you might just score a bargain-bin flight. Enter: the algorithm, the frugal traveller's ultimate supervillain. More than a code, it’s a predatory math genius that knows you’re desperate before you do, and it's been pricing you out ever since.

“Unless you work for an airline, there’s no such thing as showing up at the airport and flying standby anywhere for cheap,” says personal finance and travel expert Barry Choi. “Last-minute flights will cost you the most.”

So, yeah, the airport gamble is dead. But if you know how the villainous algorithm thinks, you can still find cracks in its armour.

The house always wins: the rise of dynamic pricing

The airlines used to be the desperate ones. If an airline hadn’t sold enough tickets close to departure, it would slash prices to fill the cabin – something was always better than nothing. The game changed after 2011, when Google acquired a flight-search engine called QPX that could calculate millions of flight combinations, prices, and taxes in milliseconds.

Since then, airlines have relied on dynamic pricing that can adjust fares dozens of times per day, reacting to shifts in demand, supply, and predictive modelling. They know exactly how much you’re willing to pay for a ticket.

“The pricing algorithms adjust fares in real time partially in response to competition and, more importantly, in response to changes in demand in comparison to the same time period in advance of a flight as in past years,” says Fred Lazar, associate professor of economics at York University.

When you go to book a flight, the algorithm isn’t just looking at that specific flight; it's analyzing years of historical data for this specific Wednesday in February, cross-referenced with local events (say, Taylor Swift is coming to town) and real-time competitor pricing. If 50 people search for the same Miami route in an hour, prices will spike because the algorithm senses a surge. It also knows those searching for flights that depart within the next 48 hours aren’t browsing – they're buying, likely for business or a family emergency.

“The algorithm has figured out that these people really need to fly and are willing to pay more, so it rationally charges them more,” says Ambarish Chandra, associate professor of economic analysis and policy at University of Toronto. Chandra’s research found that prices climb sharply even on quieter routes. By keeping prices high until the cabin door closes, the algorithm has effectively decided that, actually, an empty seat is more profitable than a cheap one.

As Lazar points out, major airlines in Canada and around the world are flying fuller than ever. “So, there is little need to offer cheap, last-minute fares to fill the last few seats,” he says.

Most travellers have accepted the algorithm's dominance as fact. But quiet resignation isn't the only option.

Outsmarting the algorithm

Before you rage-quit and delete your travel apps, there are ways to fight back against the algorithm to score the cheapest flight possible.

The booking sweet spot

Don’t wait for a miracle – book as soon as you can. “Typically, prices steadily increase as the date gets closer,” says Choi. According to Skyscanner Canada, the booking sweet spot for Canadians is at least 30 days prior to domestic flights and 50 days before international hauls.

Weaponize the data

Fight fire with fire. Set price alerts on cost comparison sites like Skyscanner and Google Flights for up-to-the-minute price drops. You’ll get an email the second the algorithm flinches and drops a fare, helping you pounce on that ticket before the prices climb again.

The points play

Loyalty points are the ultimate defensive shield for frequent flyers. Instead of bleeding cash every time the algorithm spikes a fare, you're spending points you've already earned. They won't always cover the whole fare, but they're an excellent buffer, and every point you redeem is money the algorithm doesn't get.

“Using loyalty points will always help you offset your costs," says Choi. "That's why you should be part of a loyalty program that matters to you." He recommends the Aeroplan and Air Canada programs, though it's worth shopping around depending on where you live and how often you fly.

The hub-and-spoke hack

The algorithm underestimates you; it thinks you’re too tired or stressed to commute. Prove it wrong and book an airport just outside of a large regional hub for cost savings on flights. For example, instead of Toronto’s Pearson International Airport, fly in or out of nearby(ish), lower-cost airports in Hamilton or Waterloo.

The tactical detour

Sometimes the shortest distance between two points isn't a straight line. Book a separate low-cost, short-haul flight to a major hub to catch a much cheaper long-haul deal. If a direct flight from Moncton to Paris is $1200, but a flight from New York to Paris is only $600, then buying a cheap $150 ticket to New York first makes way more financial sense. (Just make sure you account for enough time between connections!)

The mix-and-match play

Airlines price round-trips as a package, which isn't always the best deal. Booking two separate one-way tickets will let you shop for each leg independently, choosing the cheapest airline for the outbound flight and doing the same for the return. But don't forget that direct flights will typically cost more than ones with stopovers.

The glitch in the map

If you want to play Robin Hood against the algorithm, look into the 'hidden city' glitch. Say a trip from Toronto to New York is $300 with a layover in Montreal, but a direct flight from Toronto to Montreal is $500. You can book the New York flight and simply leave the airport in Montreal, a tactic called "skiplagging." There are real caveats, though: you can’t check a bag, it only works on one-way trips (skiplagging the outbound leg of a round trip will get your return flight cancelled), it violates most airlines' terms of service, and repeat offenders risk having their frequent flyer account suspended or being banned from the airline altogether.

Sadly, the algorithm can't be defeated outright. But because it relies on patterns, it can be predicted. The cheap seat may be dead, but every supervillain has a weakness – you just have to know how to exploit it.